An Election Play Where Min Aung Hlaing Can Become President by Winning Only 35 Seats
2025-12-26
DVB
The article explains that the military junta’s planned three-phase election is not intended to reflect the people’s will, but rather to formally remove the term “interim” from Min Aung Hlaing’s title and secure power for the military-backed USDP with only a small share of seats. Using available data and constitutional formulas, it argues that the election is designed to produce a pre-determined outcome that gives an appearance of legality to military rule.
The election lacks basic conditions of freedom and fairness. Since the 2021 coup, the military has arrested elected leaders, including President Win Myint and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi — who remains imprisoned under fabricated charges — along with ministers, MPs, activists, and nearly 30,000 political prisoners. Major opposition parties, including the NLD and over 40 others, were deregistered under a new party law, while the NUG has been labelled a terrorist organization. Many potential candidates are in prison, in hiding, or displaced, leaving mostly USDP-aligned parties to contest.
The Union Election Commission is chaired by a former military MP sanctioned internationally, and the constitution already guarantees the military 25% of parliamentary seats. Independent media has been crushed: dozens of outlets shut down, journalists jailed or killed, online critics persecuted, and new “election security” laws threaten opponents with severe sentences — including life imprisonment or death.
The election is also taking place amid widespread war and displacement. Elections will not be possible in at least 56 townships, and in many others only limited urban polling may occur, excluding rural populations. Millions are displaced or in need of humanitarian aid, and many are likely to lose voting rights. Census coverage has also been incomplete, making voter lists unreliable.
The article analyzes constitutional seat-allocation rules to show how the military and USDP can still form a government even without nationwide voting or majority support. Because the military’s fixed parliamentary bloc remains intact while elected seats shrink in number, its voting power proportionally increases. With only around 35–115 additional elected seats, the junta and USDP could secure enough votes in parliament to appoint the president and form a government — even if opposition parties win the vast majority of contested seats.
It concludes that the phased election model allows the junta to convene parliament and elect a president after only the first two phases, without waiting for full nationwide polls. This reveals the election as a mathematical exercise designed to legitimize authoritarian rule rather than a genuine democratic process — a performance staged to formalize power rather than reflect the will of the people.
Link - DVB Burmese
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